Davis Wade Forecast

Track record

Across 23 tracked home games since 2023, the forecast missed the announced crowd by 1,579 on a typical game, and the real number landed inside the 80% range 20 times out of 23. 1 result was saved before kickoff; earlier games use leave-one-out estimates with each game's attendance held out.

23games scored, 18 of them with a get-in price
1,579typical miss in seats (mean absolute error)
87%of games inside the 80% range, 20 of 23
2games announced at the full 60,417

Forecast against the announced crowd

Dots on the line are perfect calls. Above it, more people came than forecast. Filled dots used the price model; hollow dots had no listed price and used the schedule-only model.

Forecast versus actual attendance for 23 games 40k 40k 45k 45k 50k 50k 55k 55k 60k 60k Sellout 60,417 Forecast Actual 2023 SE Louisiana: forecast 48,905, actual 50,041 (-1,136) 2023 Arizona: forecast 51,626, actual 51,648 (-22) 2023 LSU: forecast 57,420, actual 60,084 (-2,664) 2023 Alabama: forecast 55,994, actual 60,111 (-4,117) 2023 Western Michigan: forecast 47,171, actual 47,158 (+13) 2023 Kentucky: forecast 50,305, actual 52,329 (-2,024) 2023 Southern Miss: forecast 54,631, actual 53,855 (+776) 2023 Ole Miss: forecast 60,417, actual 60,412 (+5) 2024 Eastern Kentucky: forecast 50,143, actual 48,724 (+1,419) 2024 Toledo: forecast 48,117, actual 47,412 (+705) 2024 Florida: forecast 51,935, actual 49,655 (+2,280) 2024 Texas A&M: forecast 53,641, actual 50,127 (+3,514) 2024 Arkansas: forecast 51,192, actual 49,303 (+1,889) 2024 Massachusetts: forecast 49,886, actual 48,617 (+1,269) 2024 Missouri: forecast 53,058, actual 47,824 (+5,234) 2025 Arizona State: forecast 50,920, actual 50,808 (+112) 2025 Alcorn State: forecast 49,618, actual 49,158 (+460) 2025 Northern Illinois: forecast 43,360, actual 45,803 (-2,443) 2025 Tennessee: forecast 57,564, actual 60,417 (-2,853) 2025 Texas: forecast 53,570, actual 52,680 (+890) 2025 Georgia: forecast 53,110, actual 53,017 (+93) 2025 Ole Miss: forecast 59,993, actual 60,417 (-424) 2026 UL Monroe: forecast 50,749, actual 48,771 (+1,978)

Every game

Game Get-in Forecast 80% range Actual Miss Range
UL MonroeSat, Sep 5, 2026 $30 50,749recorded pregame 47,658 to 53,840 48,771 +1,978 Inside
Ole Miss No. 6Fri, Nov 28, 2025 $133 59,993 56,640 to 60,417 60,417sellout -424 Inside
Georgia No. 5Sat, Nov 8, 2025 $45 53,110 50,008 to 56,212 53,017 +93 Inside
Texas No. 22Sat, Oct 25, 2025 $48 53,570 50,482 to 56,658 52,680 +890 Inside
Tennessee No. 15Sat, Sep 27, 2025 $95 57,564 54,503 to 60,417 60,417sellout -2,853 Inside
Northern IllinoisSat, Sep 20, 2025 $11 43,360 39,909 to 46,811 45,803 -2,443 Inside
Alcorn StateSat, Sep 13, 2025 $26 49,618 46,463 to 52,772 49,158 +460 Inside
Arizona State No. 12Sat, Sep 6, 2025 $32 50,920 47,797 to 54,043 50,808 +112 Inside
MissouriSat, Nov 23, 2024 $9 53,058 50,539 to 55,577 47,824 +5,234 Outside
MassachusettsSat, Nov 2, 2024 none 49,886schedule-only model 45,399 to 54,374 48,617 +1,269 Inside
ArkansasSat, Oct 26, 2024 none 51,192schedule-only model 46,561 to 55,823 49,303 +1,889 Inside
Texas A&M No. 14Sat, Oct 19, 2024 $10 53,641 50,786 to 56,495 50,127 +3,514 Outside
FloridaSat, Sep 21, 2024 none 51,935schedule-only model 47,185 to 56,684 49,655 +2,280 Inside
ToledoSat, Sep 14, 2024 none 48,117schedule-only model 43,495 to 52,739 47,412 +705 Inside
Eastern KentuckySat, Aug 31, 2024 none 50,143schedule-only model 45,143 to 55,143 48,724 +1,419 Inside
Ole Miss No. 12Thu, Nov 23, 2023 $63 60,417 59,607 to 60,417 60,412 +5 Inside
Southern MissSat, Nov 18, 2023 $19 54,631 51,529 to 57,732 53,855 +776 Inside
KentuckySat, Nov 4, 2023 $10 50,305 47,251 to 53,358 52,329 -2,024 Inside
Western MichiganSat, Oct 7, 2023 $6 47,171 43,899 to 50,443 47,158 +13 Inside
Alabama No. 12Sat, Sep 30, 2023 $25 55,994 53,181 to 58,807 60,111 -4,117 Outside
LSU No. 14Sat, Sep 16, 2023 $31 57,420 54,348 to 60,417 60,084 -2,664 Inside
ArizonaSat, Sep 9, 2023 $12 51,626 48,515 to 54,737 51,648 -22 Inside
SE LouisianaSat, Sep 2, 2023 $8 48,905 45,751 to 52,059 50,041 -1,136 Inside

Miss is forecast minus actual, so a negative number means more fans came than the model expected. “Recorded pregame” marks a forecast archived before kickoff; all other rows are leave-one-out estimates. The 2024 rows without a price use the schedule-only model.