Track record
Across 25 tracked home games since 2023, the forecast missed the announced crowd by 1,834 on a typical game, and the real number landed inside the 80% range 22 times out of 25. 3 results were saved before kickoff; earlier games use leave-one-out estimates with each game's attendance held out.
Forecast against the announced crowd
Dots on the line are perfect calls. Above it, more people came than forecast. Filled dots used the price model; hollow dots had no listed price and used the schedule-only model.
Every game
| Game | Get-in | Forecast | 80% range | Actual | Miss | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama No. 7Sat, Oct 3, 2026 |
$119used pregame | 58,944recorded pregame | 55,820 to 60,417 | 60,417sellout | -1,473 | Inside |
Missouri No. 19Sat, Sep 26, 2026 |
$48used pregame | 53,105recorded pregame | 50,115 to 56,095 | 60,417sellout | -7,312 | Outside |
UL MonroeSat, Sep 5, 2026 |
$30used pregame | 50,749recorded pregame | 47,658 to 53,840 | 48,771 | +1,978 | Inside |
Ole Miss No. 6Fri, Nov 28, 2025 |
$133 | 60,417 | 56,155 to 60,417 | 60,417sellout | +0 | Inside |
Georgia No. 5Sat, Nov 8, 2025 |
$45 | 53,621 | 49,605 to 57,637 | 53,017 | +604 | Inside |
Texas No. 22Sat, Oct 25, 2025 |
$48 | 54,068 | 50,072 to 58,064 | 52,680 | +1,388 | Inside |
Tennessee No. 15Sat, Sep 27, 2025 |
$95 | 58,070 | 54,002 to 60,417 | 60,417sellout | -2,347 | Inside |
Northern IllinoisSat, Sep 20, 2025 |
$11 | 44,291 | 39,751 to 48,830 | 45,803 | -1,512 | Inside |
Alcorn StateSat, Sep 13, 2025 |
$26 | 50,214 | 46,132 to 54,295 | 49,158 | +1,056 | Inside |
Arizona State No. 12Sat, Sep 6, 2025 |
$32 | 51,480 | 47,434 to 55,525 | 50,808 | +672 | Inside |
|
MissouriSat, Nov 23, 2024 |
$9 | 53,548 | 49,977 to 57,119 | 47,824 | +5,724 | Outside |
MassachusettsSat, Nov 2, 2024 |
none | 49,842schedule-only model | 45,407 to 54,277 | 48,617 | +1,225 | Inside |
ArkansasSat, Oct 26, 2024 |
none | 51,350schedule-only model | 46,771 to 55,928 | 49,303 | +2,047 | Inside |
Texas A&M No. 14Sat, Oct 19, 2024 |
$10 | 54,124 | 50,316 to 57,931 | 50,127 | +3,997 | Outside |
FloridaSat, Sep 21, 2024 |
none | 52,205schedule-only model | 47,506 to 56,905 | 49,655 | +2,550 | Inside |
ToledoSat, Sep 14, 2024 |
none | 47,837schedule-only model | 43,250 to 52,423 | 47,412 | +425 | Inside |
Eastern KentuckySat, Aug 31, 2024 |
none | 50,056schedule-only model | 45,125 to 54,987 | 48,724 | +1,332 | Inside |
|
Ole Miss No. 12Thu, Nov 23, 2023 |
$63 | 60,417 | 58,930 to 60,417 | 60,412 | +5 | Inside |
Southern MissSat, Nov 18, 2023 |
$19 | 55,111 | 51,101 to 59,120 | 53,855 | +1,256 | Inside |
KentuckySat, Nov 4, 2023 |
$10 | 50,886 | 46,849 to 54,923 | 52,329 | -1,443 | Inside |
Western MichiganSat, Oct 7, 2023 |
$6 | 47,860 | 43,631 to 52,088 | 47,158 | +702 | Inside |
|
Alabama No. 12Sat, Sep 30, 2023 |
$25 | 56,513 | 52,612 to 60,414 | 60,111 | -3,598 | Inside |
LSU No. 14Sat, Sep 16, 2023 |
$31 | 57,922 | 53,852 to 60,417 | 60,084 | -2,162 | Inside |
ArizonaSat, Sep 9, 2023 |
$12 | 52,169 | 48,136 to 56,201 | 51,648 | +521 | Inside |
SE LouisianaSat, Sep 2, 2023 |
$8 | 49,528 | 45,410 to 53,645 | 50,041 | -513 | Inside |
Miss is forecast minus actual, so a negative number means more fans came than the model expected. “Recorded pregame” marks a forecast archived before kickoff; all other rows are leave-one-out estimates. Get-in shows the price used for that forecast; game pages also show the latest recorded price. The 2024 rows without a price use the schedule-only model.