2026 outlook / 2023 season / Week 12
vs
Southern Miss
Sat, Nov 18, 2023. 11 a.m. CT. Davis Wade Stadium.
54,631
retrospective forecast, attendance held out
53,855
announced attendance
- 80% range
- 51,529 to 57,732
- Miss
- +776 Inside
- Get-in price
- $19
- Model
- Price model
Why 54,631
Start from an average game in the training set, 52,989. Each variable then moves the number by its weight times how far this game sits from that average.
- Get-in price, relative to the season$19, 1.3× the season median +1,642
Adds up to 54,631. Price model, 80% range 51,529 to 57,732.
The inputs
| Variable | This game | Training average | Weight | Seats moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Get-in price, relative to the seasonThe cheapest resale ticket on ticketdata.com, compared with that season's median price on a log scale. All listed home games contribute to the reference. A doubling relative to that reference has the same effect in any season. | $19, 1.3× the season median | 0.98× the season reference | 6,453 | +1,642 |
Weight is the change in forecast attendance for a one-unit change in the variable. Seats moved is that weight times this game's distance from the training average. How the weights were fitted.
Data notes
- Missing attendance filled with 53,855 from https://hailstate.com/news/2023/11/18/football-postgame-notes-mississippi-state-vs-southern-miss.