{
 "site_name": "Davis Wade Forecast",
 "site_url": "",
 "team": "Mississippi State",
 "venue": "Davis Wade Stadium",
 "capacity": 60417,
 "interval": 0.8,
 "generated": "2026-09-24",
 "trained": "2026-09-24",
 "seasons": [
  2023,
  2024,
  2025,
  2026
 ],
 "current_season": 2026,
 "next_game": "2026-missouri",
 "axis_min": 35000,
 "bar_max": 11000,
 "bar_max_current": 7000,
 "games": [
  {
   "season": 2023,
   "week": 1,
   "date": "2023-09-02",
   "date_label": "Sat, Sep 2, 2023",
   "date_short": "Sat, Sep 2",
   "kickoff": "3 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "SE Louisiana",
   "slug": "2023-se-louisiana",
   "opp_id": 2545,
   "logo": "2545.png",
   "attendance": 50041,
   "actual": 50041,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 8.0,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 862.0,
   "sp": -36.3,
   "conf_game": 0,
   "rel_log_price": -0.6352312727973843,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 48905,
    "lo": 45751,
    "hi": 52059,
    "p_sellout": 9.751494515124269e-05
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": -1136,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53212.88235294118,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": -0.6352312727973843,
      "display": "$8, 53% of the season median",
      "mean_display": "1.03\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": -4307.45057027261,
      "weight": 6513.039151914036
     }
    ],
    "total": 48905.43178266857,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": [
    "No Elo; imputed 862.0.",
    "No SP+; imputed -36.3."
   ]
  },
  {
   "season": 2023,
   "week": 2,
   "date": "2023-09-09",
   "date_label": "Sat, Sep 9, 2023",
   "date_short": "Sat, Sep 9",
   "kickoff": "6:30 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Arizona",
   "slug": "2023-arizona",
   "opp_id": 12,
   "logo": "12.png",
   "attendance": 51648,
   "actual": 51648,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 12.0,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 1416.0,
   "sp": 14.1,
   "conf_game": 0,
   "rel_log_price": -0.2297661646892197,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 51626,
    "lo": 48515,
    "hi": 54737,
    "p_sellout": 0.000893155773309972
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": -22,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53118.352941176505,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": -0.2297661646892197,
      "display": "$12, 79% of the season median",
      "mean_display": "1.00\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": -1492.5230714624438,
      "weight": 6432.124479420284
     }
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    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2023,
   "week": 3,
   "date": "2023-09-16",
   "date_label": "Sat, Sep 16, 2023",
   "date_short": "Sat, Sep 16",
   "kickoff": "11 a.m. CT",
   "opponent": "LSU",
   "slug": "2023-lsu",
   "opp_id": 99,
   "logo": "99.png",
   "attendance": 60084,
   "actual": 60084,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 31.0,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 1,
   "ap_rank": 14,
   "elo": 1687.0,
   "sp": 19.1,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": 0.7193143900079262,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 57420,
    "lo": 54348,
    "hi": 60417,
    "p_sellout": 0.10535144225066836
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": -2664,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 52622.11764705883,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 0.7193143900079262,
      "display": "$31, 2.1\u00d7 the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.95\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 4798.134636230175,
      "weight": 6208.229590543398
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    ],
    "total": 57420.25228328901,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2023,
   "week": 5,
   "date": "2023-09-30",
   "date_label": "Sat, Sep 30, 2023",
   "date_short": "Sat, Sep 30",
   "kickoff": "8 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Alabama",
   "slug": "2023-alabama",
   "opp_id": 333,
   "logo": "333.png",
   "attendance": 60111,
   "actual": 60111,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 25.0,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 1,
   "ap_rank": 12,
   "elo": 1959.0,
   "sp": 23.1,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": 0.5042030103909805,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 55994,
    "lo": 53181,
    "hi": 58807,
    "p_sellout": 0.026126190231707837
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": -4117,
   "inside": false,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 52620.5294117647,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 0.5042030103909805,
      "display": "$25, 1.7\u00d7 the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.96\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 3373.1394257207767,
      "weight": 6188.0904931325185
     }
    ],
    "total": 55993.66883748548,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2023,
   "week": 6,
   "date": "2023-10-07",
   "date_label": "Sat, Oct 7, 2023",
   "date_short": "Sat, Oct 7",
   "kickoff": "11 a.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Western Michigan",
   "slug": "2023-western-michigan",
   "opp_id": 2711,
   "logo": "2711.png",
   "attendance": 47158,
   "actual": 47158,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 6.0,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 1249.0,
   "sp": -15.9,
   "conf_game": 0,
   "rel_log_price": -0.9229133452491652,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 47171,
    "lo": 43899,
    "hi": 50443,
    "p_sellout": 3.502514392294076e-05
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 13,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53382.47058823531,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": -0.9229133452491652,
      "display": "$6, 40% of the season median",
      "mean_display": "1.04\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": -6211.321256895052,
      "weight": 6430.188470240326
     }
    ],
    "total": 47171.14933134025,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2023,
   "week": 10,
   "date": "2023-11-04",
   "date_label": "Sat, Nov 4, 2023",
   "date_short": "Sat, Nov 4",
   "kickoff": "6:30 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Kentucky",
   "slug": "2023-kentucky",
   "opp_id": 96,
   "logo": "96.png",
   "attendance": 52329,
   "actual": 52329,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 10.0,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 1600.0,
   "sp": 10.5,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": -0.4120877214831742,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 50305,
    "lo": 47251,
    "hi": 53358,
    "p_sellout": 0.00023879212891817015
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": -2024,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53078.29411764706,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": -0.4120877214831742,
      "display": "$10, 66% of the season median",
      "mean_display": "1.01\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": -2773.667670792408,
      "weight": 6524.920288726811
     }
    ],
    "total": 50304.62644685466,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2023,
   "week": 12,
   "date": "2023-11-18",
   "date_label": "Sat, Nov 18, 2023",
   "date_short": "Sat, Nov 18",
   "kickoff": "11 a.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Southern Miss",
   "slug": "2023-southern-miss",
   "opp_id": 2572,
   "logo": "2572.png",
   "attendance": 53855,
   "actual": 53855,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 19.0,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 1184.0,
   "sp": -14.4,
   "conf_game": 0,
   "rel_log_price": 0.2297661646892201,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 54631,
    "lo": 51529,
    "hi": 57732,
    "p_sellout": 0.01222872871469892
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 776,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 52988.52941176472,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 0.2297661646892201,
      "display": "$19, 1.3\u00d7 the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.98\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 1642.4259688558056,
      "weight": 6452.991554964568
     }
    ],
    "total": 54630.95538062053,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": [
    "Missing attendance filled with 53,855 from https://hailstate.com/news/2023/11/18/football-postgame-notes-mississippi-state-vs-southern-miss."
   ]
  },
  {
   "season": 2023,
   "week": 13,
   "date": "2023-11-23",
   "date_label": "Thu, Nov 23, 2023",
   "date_short": "Thu, Nov 23",
   "kickoff": "6:30 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Ole Miss",
   "slug": "2023-ole-miss",
   "opp_id": 145,
   "logo": "145.png",
   "attendance": 60412,
   "actual": 60412,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 63.0,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 1,
   "ap_rank": 12,
   "elo": 1676.0,
   "sp": 18.4,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": 1.4284619119143125,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 60417,
    "lo": 59607,
    "hi": 60417,
    "p_sellout": 0.8397086667689708
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 5,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 52602.82352941177,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 1.4284619119143125,
      "display": "$63, 4.2\u00d7 the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.91\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 10470.197220705628,
      "weight": 6871.430498414171
     }
    ],
    "total": 63073.0207501174,
    "capped": true
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2024,
   "week": 1,
   "date": "2024-08-31",
   "date_label": "Sat, Aug 31, 2024",
   "date_short": "Sat, Aug 31",
   "kickoff": "5 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Eastern Kentucky",
   "slug": "2024-eastern-kentucky",
   "opp_id": 2198,
   "logo": "2198.png",
   "attendance": 48724,
   "actual": 48724,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": null,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 660.0,
   "sp": -43.0,
   "conf_game": 0,
   "rel_log_price": null,
   "tier": "tier1",
   "tier_label": "Schedule-only model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 50143,
    "lo": 45143,
    "hi": 55143,
    "p_sellout": 0.006819312576554317
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 1419,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 52256.68181818353,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "opp_ranked",
      "label": "Opponent ranked in the AP Top 25",
      "value": 0.0,
      "display": "Unranked",
      "mean_display": "41% of games ranked",
      "contribution": -3374.710676819902,
      "weight": 8249.29276555976
     },
     {
      "feature": "opp_elo",
      "label": "Opponent Elo rating",
      "value": 660.0,
      "display": "660",
      "mean_display": "1,515",
      "contribution": 9658.184143124014,
      "weight": -11.297323008758415
     },
     {
      "feature": "opp_sp",
      "label": "Opponent SP+ rating",
      "value": -43.0,
      "display": "-43.0",
      "mean_display": "+1.9",
      "contribution": -8396.893381202319,
      "weight": 187.1647967441246
     }
    ],
    "total": 50143.261903285325,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": [
    "No Elo; imputed 660.0.",
    "No SP+; imputed -43.0."
   ]
  },
  {
   "season": 2024,
   "week": 3,
   "date": "2024-09-14",
   "date_label": "Sat, Sep 14, 2024",
   "date_short": "Sat, Sep 14",
   "kickoff": "6:30 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Toledo",
   "slug": "2024-toledo",
   "opp_id": 2649,
   "logo": "2649.png",
   "attendance": 47412,
   "actual": 47412,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": null,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 1524.0,
   "sp": -2.5,
   "conf_game": 0,
   "rel_log_price": null,
   "tier": "tier1",
   "tier_label": "Schedule-only model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 48117,
    "lo": 43495,
    "hi": 52739,
    "p_sellout": 0.001168477713742055
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 705,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 52316.318181820476,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "opp_ranked",
      "label": "Opponent ranked in the AP Top 25",
      "value": 0.0,
      "display": "Unranked",
      "mean_display": "41% of games ranked",
      "contribution": -3237.4220875482984,
      "weight": 7913.698436229173
     },
     {
      "feature": "opp_elo",
      "label": "Opponent Elo rating",
      "value": 1524.0,
      "display": "1,524",
      "mean_display": "1,476",
      "contribution": -502.7663646830613,
      "weight": -10.395545134424221
     },
     {
      "feature": "opp_sp",
      "label": "Opponent SP+ rating",
      "value": -2.5,
      "display": "-2.5",
      "mean_display": "+0.0",
      "contribution": -459.3170074545986,
      "weight": 182.07160655857956
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    ],
    "total": 48116.81272213452,
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   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2024,
   "week": 4,
   "date": "2024-09-21",
   "date_label": "Sat, Sep 21, 2024",
   "date_short": "Sat, Sep 21",
   "kickoff": "11 a.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Florida",
   "slug": "2024-florida",
   "opp_id": 57,
   "logo": "57.png",
   "attendance": 49655,
   "actual": 49655,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": null,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 1485.0,
   "sp": 13.8,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": null,
   "tier": "tier1",
   "tier_label": "Schedule-only model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 51935,
    "lo": 47185,
    "hi": 56684,
    "p_sellout": 0.01440484538922862
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   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 2280,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 52214.36363636617,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "opp_ranked",
      "label": "Opponent ranked in the AP Top 25",
      "value": 0.0,
      "display": "Unranked",
      "mean_display": "41% of games ranked",
      "contribution": -3179.1193439768244,
      "weight": 7771.180618610015
     },
     {
      "feature": "opp_elo",
      "label": "Opponent Elo rating",
      "value": 1485.0,
      "display": "1,485",
      "mean_display": "1,477",
      "contribution": -87.42507987251301,
      "weight": -11.517076390391061
     },
     {
      "feature": "opp_sp",
      "label": "Opponent SP+ rating",
      "value": 13.8,
      "display": "+13.8",
      "mean_display": "-0.7",
      "contribution": 2986.776049171958,
      "weight": 205.72659073820626
     }
    ],
    "total": 51934.595261688795,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2024,
   "week": 8,
   "date": "2024-10-19",
   "date_label": "Sat, Oct 19, 2024",
   "date_short": "Sat, Oct 19",
   "kickoff": "3:15 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Texas A&M",
   "slug": "2024-texas-a-m",
   "opp_id": 245,
   "logo": "245.png",
   "attendance": 50127,
   "actual": 50127,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 10.0,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 1,
   "ap_rank": 14,
   "elo": 1781.0,
   "sp": 17.0,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": 0.0526802578289133,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 53641,
    "lo": 50786,
    "hi": 56495,
    "p_sellout": 0.0030912630382613636
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 3514,
   "inside": false,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53207.823529411755,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 0.0526802578289133,
      "display": "$10, 1.1\u00d7 the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.99\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 432.7485872587434,
      "weight": 6457.111567967708
     }
    ],
    "total": 53640.5721166705,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": [
    "Only 2 prices are recorded for this season. Its price reference is less reliable; historical results remain visible in the evaluation."
   ]
  },
  {
   "season": 2024,
   "week": 9,
   "date": "2024-10-26",
   "date_label": "Sat, Oct 26, 2024",
   "date_short": "Sat, Oct 26",
   "kickoff": "11:45 a.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Arkansas",
   "slug": "2024-arkansas",
   "opp_id": 8,
   "logo": "8.png",
   "attendance": 49303,
   "actual": 49303,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": null,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 1490.0,
   "sp": 11.0,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": null,
   "tier": "tier1",
   "tier_label": "Schedule-only model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 51192,
    "lo": 46561,
    "hi": 55823,
    "p_sellout": 0.00813956528005267
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   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 1889,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 52230.3636363639,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "opp_ranked",
      "label": "Opponent ranked in the AP Top 25",
      "value": 0.0,
      "display": "Unranked",
      "mean_display": "41% of games ranked",
      "contribution": -3190.03635713213,
      "weight": 7797.866650767428
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     {
      "feature": "opp_elo",
      "label": "Opponent Elo rating",
      "value": 1490.0,
      "display": "1,490",
      "mean_display": "1,477",
      "contribution": -142.65217710002827,
      "weight": -11.128893248938429
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     {
      "feature": "opp_sp",
      "label": "Opponent SP+ rating",
      "value": 11.0,
      "display": "+11.0",
      "mean_display": "-0.6",
      "contribution": 2294.22318368194,
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   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2024,
   "week": 10,
   "date": "2024-11-02",
   "date_label": "Sat, Nov 2, 2024",
   "date_short": "Sat, Nov 2",
   "kickoff": "3:15 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Massachusetts",
   "slug": "2024-massachusetts",
   "opp_id": 113,
   "logo": "113.png",
   "attendance": 48617,
   "actual": 48617,
   "completed": 1,
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   "getin": null,
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   "elo": 1025.0,
   "sp": -21.9,
   "conf_game": 0,
   "rel_log_price": null,
   "tier": "tier1",
   "tier_label": "Schedule-only model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 49886,
    "lo": 45399,
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   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 1269,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 52261.54545455138,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "opp_ranked",
      "label": "Opponent ranked in the AP Top 25",
      "value": 0.0,
      "display": "Unranked",
      "mean_display": "41% of games ranked",
      "contribution": -3299.283644377594,
      "weight": 8064.91557514523
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     {
      "feature": "opp_elo",
      "label": "Opponent Elo rating",
      "value": 1025.0,
      "display": "1,025",
      "mean_display": "1,498",
      "contribution": 5200.308190557695,
      "weight": -10.986918293697235
     },
     {
      "feature": "opp_sp",
      "label": "Opponent SP+ rating",
      "value": -21.9,
      "display": "-21.9",
      "mean_display": "+0.9",
      "contribution": -4276.1634169951785,
      "weight": 187.51364395832954
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   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2024,
   "week": 13,
   "date": "2024-11-23",
   "date_label": "Sat, Nov 23, 2024",
   "date_short": "Sat, Nov 23",
   "kickoff": "3:15 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Missouri",
   "slug": "2024-missouri",
   "opp_id": 142,
   "logo": "142.png",
   "attendance": 47824,
   "actual": 47824,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 9.0,
   "observed": null,
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   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 1684.0,
   "sp": 14.0,
   "conf_game": 1,
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   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 53058,
    "lo": 50539,
    "hi": 55577,
    "p_sellout": 0.0006861493134305092
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 5234,
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   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53343.29411764706,
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     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
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      "value": -0.0526802578289129,
      "display": "$9, 95% of the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.99\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": -285.33098181182925,
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    "total": 53057.963135835234,
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   "notes": [
    "Only 2 prices are recorded for this season. Its price reference is less reliable; historical results remain visible in the evaluation."
   ]
  },
  {
   "season": 2025,
   "week": 2,
   "date": "2025-09-06",
   "date_label": "Sat, Sep 6, 2025",
   "date_short": "Sat, Sep 6",
   "kickoff": "6:30 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Arizona State",
   "slug": "2025-arizona-state",
   "opp_id": 9,
   "logo": "9.png",
   "attendance": 50808,
   "actual": 50808,
   "completed": 1,
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   "getin": 32.0,
   "observed": null,
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   "ranked": 1,
   "ap_rank": 12,
   "elo": 1700.0,
   "sp": 3.9,
   "conf_game": 0,
   "rel_log_price": -0.3409265869705931,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 50920,
    "lo": 47797,
    "hi": 54043,
    "p_sellout": 0.0004954812918918695
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   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 112,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53167.76470588233,
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     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": -0.3409265869705931,
      "display": "$32, 71% of the season median",
      "mean_display": "1.01\u00d7 the season reference",
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   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2025,
   "week": 3,
   "date": "2025-09-13",
   "date_label": "Sat, Sep 13, 2025",
   "date_short": "Sat, Sep 13",
   "kickoff": "5 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Alcorn State",
   "slug": "2025-alcorn-state",
   "opp_id": 2016,
   "logo": "2016.png",
   "attendance": 49158,
   "actual": 49158,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 26.0,
   "observed": null,
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   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 618.0,
   "sp": -46.6,
   "conf_game": 0,
   "rel_log_price": -0.5485659517488375,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 49618,
    "lo": 46463,
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    "p_sellout": 0.00017697175778879165
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   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 460,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53264.82352941177,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": -0.5485659517488375,
      "display": "$26, 58% of the season median",
      "mean_display": "1.02\u00d7 the season reference",
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    "total": 49617.6138649515,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": [
    "No Elo; imputed 618.0.",
    "No SP+; imputed -46.6."
   ]
  },
  {
   "season": 2025,
   "week": 4,
   "date": "2025-09-20",
   "date_label": "Sat, Sep 20, 2025",
   "date_short": "Sat, Sep 20",
   "kickoff": "3:15 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Northern Illinois",
   "slug": "2025-northern-illinois",
   "opp_id": 2459,
   "logo": "2459.png",
   "attendance": 45803,
   "actual": 45803,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 11.0,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 1453.0,
   "sp": -16.7,
   "conf_game": 0,
   "rel_log_price": -1.408767216971949,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 43360,
    "lo": 39909,
    "hi": 46811,
    "p_sellout": 4.03367990462806e-06
   },
   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": -2443,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53462.176470588245,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": -1.408767216971949,
      "display": "$11, 24% of the season median",
      "mean_display": "1.07\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": -10102.05774203507,
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   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2025,
   "week": 5,
   "date": "2025-09-27",
   "date_label": "Sat, Sep 27, 2025",
   "date_short": "Sat, Sep 27",
   "kickoff": "3:15 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Tennessee",
   "slug": "2025-tennessee",
   "opp_id": 2633,
   "logo": "2633.png",
   "attendance": 60417,
   "actual": 60417,
   "completed": 1,
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   "ranked": 1,
   "ap_rank": 15,
   "elo": 1838.0,
   "sp": 15.0,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": 0.7472144018302211,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 57564,
    "lo": 54503,
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   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": -2853,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": true,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 52602.52941176472,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 0.7472144018302211,
      "display": "$95, 2.1\u00d7 the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.95\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 4961.463977111989,
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    "total": 57563.99338887671,
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   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2025,
   "week": 9,
   "date": "2025-10-25",
   "date_label": "Sat, Oct 25, 2025",
   "date_short": "Sat, Oct 25",
   "kickoff": "3:15 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Texas",
   "slug": "2025-texas",
   "opp_id": 251,
   "logo": "251.png",
   "attendance": 52680,
   "actual": 52680,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 48.0,
   "observed": null,
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   "ranked": 1,
   "ap_rank": 22,
   "elo": 1944.0,
   "sp": 16.2,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": 0.0645385211375715,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 53570,
    "lo": 50482,
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    "p_sellout": 0.0047434264902008055
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   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 890,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53057.64705882355,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 0.0645385211375715,
      "display": "$48, 1.1\u00d7 the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.99\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 512.4014934499319,
      "weight": 6439.249761471301
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    ],
    "total": 53570.04855227348,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2025,
   "week": 11,
   "date": "2025-11-08",
   "date_label": "Sat, Nov 8, 2025",
   "date_short": "Sat, Nov 8",
   "kickoff": "11 a.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Georgia",
   "slug": "2025-georgia",
   "opp_id": 61,
   "logo": "61.png",
   "attendance": 53017,
   "actual": 53017,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 45.0,
   "observed": null,
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   "ranked": 1,
   "ap_rank": 5,
   "elo": 2017.0,
   "sp": 24.1,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": 0.0,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 53110,
    "lo": 50008,
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    "p_sellout": 0.003250457917523376
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   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": 93,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53037.82352941178,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 0.0,
      "display": "$45, at the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.99\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 72.29089100063388,
      "weight": 6431.679935520191
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    ],
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   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2025,
   "week": 14,
   "date": "2025-11-28",
   "date_label": "Fri, Nov 28, 2025",
   "date_short": "Fri, Nov 28",
   "kickoff": "11 a.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Ole Miss",
   "slug": "2025-ole-miss",
   "opp_id": 145,
   "logo": "145.png",
   "attendance": 60417,
   "actual": 60417,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 133.0,
   "observed": null,
   "observed_label": null,
   "ranked": 1,
   "ap_rank": 6,
   "elo": 1959.0,
   "sp": 24.0,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": 1.083686638451434,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 59993,
    "lo": 56640,
    "hi": 60417,
    "p_sellout": 0.4337973653949002
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   "forecast_kind": "retrospective",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": -424,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": true,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 52602.52941176469,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 1.083686638451434,
      "display": "$133, 3\u00d7 the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.93\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 7390.304536721661,
      "weight": 6378.250191416795
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    ],
    "total": 59992.83394848635,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2026,
   "week": 1,
   "date": "2026-09-05",
   "date_label": "Sat, Sep 5, 2026",
   "date_short": "Sat, Sep 5",
   "kickoff": "6:30 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "UL Monroe",
   "slug": "2026-ul-monroe",
   "opp_id": 2433,
   "logo": "2433.png",
   "attendance": 48771,
   "actual": 48771,
   "completed": 1,
   "status": "played",
   "getin": 30.0,
   "observed": "2026-09-05",
   "observed_label": "Sat, Sep 5",
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 1177.0,
   "sp": -28.9,
   "conf_game": 0,
   "rel_log_price": -0.4700036292457357,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 50749,
    "lo": 47658,
    "hi": 53840,
    "p_sellout": 0.00039156623248718574
   },
   "forecast_kind": "recorded",
   "forecast_recorded_at": "2026-09-05T20:32:26.531442+00:00",
   "forecast_date": "2026-09-05",
   "error": 1978,
   "inside": true,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53287.588235294126,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": -0.3829922522561055,
      "display": "$30, 68% of the season median",
      "mean_display": "1.02\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": -2538.73825196238,
      "weight": 6356.384818442961
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    ],
    "total": 50748.84998333175,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": [
    "Missing attendance filled with 48,771 from https://hailstate.com/sports/football/stats/2026/ulm/boxscore/27455."
   ]
  },
  {
   "season": 2026,
   "week": 4,
   "date": "2026-09-26",
   "date_label": "Sat, Sep 26, 2026",
   "date_short": "Sat, Sep 26",
   "kickoff": "Kickoff to be announced",
   "opponent": "Missouri",
   "slug": "2026-missouri",
   "opp_id": 142,
   "logo": "142.png",
   "attendance": null,
   "actual": null,
   "completed": 0,
   "status": "upcoming",
   "getin": 48.0,
   "observed": "2026-09-24",
   "observed_label": "Thu, Sep 24",
   "ranked": 1,
   "ap_rank": 25,
   "elo": 1666.0,
   "sp": 15.4,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": 0.0,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 53105,
    "lo": 50115,
    "hi": 56095,
    "p_sellout": 0.002414052734508973
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   "forecast_kind": "current",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": null,
   "inside": null,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53036.666666666635,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 0.0,
      "display": "$48, at the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.99\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 68.2735251475904,
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    ],
    "total": 53104.940191814225,
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   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2026,
   "week": 5,
   "date": "2026-10-03",
   "date_label": "Sat, Oct 3, 2026",
   "date_short": "Sat, Oct 3",
   "kickoff": "Kickoff to be announced",
   "opponent": "Alabama",
   "slug": "2026-alabama",
   "opp_id": 333,
   "logo": "333.png",
   "attendance": null,
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   "completed": 0,
   "status": "upcoming",
   "getin": 119.0,
   "observed": "2026-09-24",
   "observed_label": "Thu, Sep 24",
   "ranked": 1,
   "ap_rank": 13,
   "elo": 1823.0,
   "sp": 17.6,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": 0.9079224822036384,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 58944,
    "lo": 55820,
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    "p_sellout": 0.2687826030031969
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   "forecast_kind": "current",
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   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53036.666666666635,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 0.9079224822036384,
      "display": "$119, 2.5\u00d7 the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.99\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 5907.63725385616,
      "weight": 6431.566398197039
     }
    ],
    "total": 58944.3039205228,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2026,
   "week": 8,
   "date": "2026-10-24",
   "date_label": "Sat, Oct 24, 2026",
   "date_short": "Sat, Oct 24",
   "kickoff": "Kickoff to be announced",
   "opponent": "Oklahoma",
   "slug": "2026-oklahoma",
   "opp_id": 201,
   "logo": "201.png",
   "attendance": null,
   "actual": null,
   "completed": 0,
   "status": "upcoming",
   "getin": 50.0,
   "observed": "2026-09-24",
   "observed_label": "Thu, Sep 24",
   "ranked": 1,
   "ap_rank": 10,
   "elo": 1799.0,
   "sp": 18.8,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": 0.0408219945202548,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 53367,
    "lo": 50377,
    "hi": 56358,
    "p_sellout": 0.00309230248201792
   },
   "forecast_kind": "current",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": null,
   "inside": null,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53036.666666666635,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 0.0408219945202548,
      "display": "$50, at the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.99\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 330.8228934114448,
      "weight": 6431.566398197039
     }
    ],
    "total": 53367.48956007808,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2026,
   "week": 10,
   "date": "2026-11-07",
   "date_label": "Sat, Nov 7, 2026",
   "date_short": "Sat, Nov 7",
   "kickoff": "Kickoff to be announced",
   "opponent": "Vanderbilt",
   "slug": "2026-vanderbilt",
   "opp_id": 238,
   "logo": "238.png",
   "attendance": null,
   "actual": null,
   "completed": 0,
   "status": "upcoming",
   "getin": 45.0,
   "observed": "2026-09-24",
   "observed_label": "Thu, Sep 24",
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 1753.0,
   "sp": 9.8,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": -0.0645385211375715,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 52690,
    "lo": 49699,
    "hi": 55681,
    "p_sellout": 0.0016341845028814924
   },
   "forecast_kind": "current",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": null,
   "inside": null,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53036.666666666635,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": -0.0645385211375715,
      "display": "$45, 94% of the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.99\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": -346.8102587901438,
      "weight": 6431.566398197039
     }
    ],
    "total": 52689.85640787649,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2026,
   "week": 11,
   "date": "2026-11-14",
   "date_label": "Sat, Nov 14, 2026",
   "date_short": "Sat, Nov 14",
   "kickoff": "Kickoff to be announced",
   "opponent": "Auburn",
   "slug": "2026-auburn",
   "opp_id": 2,
   "logo": "2.png",
   "attendance": null,
   "actual": null,
   "completed": 0,
   "status": "upcoming",
   "getin": 65.0,
   "observed": "2026-09-24",
   "observed_label": "Thu, Sep 24",
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 1613.0,
   "sp": 11.5,
   "conf_game": 1,
   "rel_log_price": 0.3031862589877456,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 55055,
    "lo": 52049,
    "hi": 58061,
    "p_sellout": 0.014920454441941589
   },
   "forecast_kind": "current",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": null,
   "inside": null,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53036.666666666635,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": 0.3031862589877456,
      "display": "$65, 1.4\u00d7 the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.99\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": 2018.2360808482401,
      "weight": 6431.566398197039
     }
    ],
    "total": 55054.902747514876,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": []
  },
  {
   "season": 2026,
   "week": 12,
   "date": "2026-11-21",
   "date_label": "Sat, Nov 21, 2026",
   "date_short": "Sat, Nov 21",
   "kickoff": "12 p.m. CT",
   "opponent": "Tennessee Tech",
   "slug": "2026-tennessee-tech",
   "opp_id": 2635,
   "logo": "2635.png",
   "attendance": null,
   "actual": null,
   "completed": 0,
   "status": "upcoming",
   "getin": 17.0,
   "observed": "2026-09-24",
   "observed_label": "Thu, Sep 24",
   "ranked": 0,
   "ap_rank": null,
   "elo": 829.0,
   "sp": -42.9,
   "conf_game": 0,
   "rel_log_price": -1.037987666851675,
   "tier": "tier2",
   "tier_label": "Price model",
   "forecast": {
    "pred": 46429,
    "lo": 43272,
    "hi": 49586,
    "p_sellout": 1.0735840367812583e-05
   },
   "forecast_kind": "current",
   "forecast_recorded_at": null,
   "forecast_date": null,
   "error": null,
   "inside": null,
   "sellout": false,
   "breakdown": {
    "baseline": 53036.666666666635,
    "terms": [
     {
      "feature": "rel_log_price",
      "label": "Get-in price, relative to the season",
      "value": -1.037987666851675,
      "display": "$17, 35% of the season median",
      "mean_display": "0.99\u00d7 the season reference",
      "contribution": -6607.613074718585,
      "weight": 6431.566398197039
     }
    ],
    "total": 46429.053591948046,
    "capped": false
   },
   "notes": [
    "No Elo; imputed 829.0.",
    "No SP+; imputed -42.9."
   ]
  }
 ],
 "track": {
  "n": 23,
  "rmse": 2104.778641671086,
  "mae": 1579.1304347826087,
  "inside": 20,
  "inside_rate": 0.8695652173913043,
  "priced": 18,
  "recorded": 1,
  "sellouts": 2
 },
 "models": {
  "tier1": {
   "features": [
    "opp_ranked",
    "opp_elo",
    "opp_sp"
   ],
   "intercept": 64793.62598404872,
   "coef": {
    "opp_ranked": 8048.113852169942,
    "opp_elo": -10.708025353615703,
    "opp_sp": 185.52829201019733
   },
   "stderr": {
    "const": 7622.692195558952,
    "opp_ranked": 1990.3323151849654,
    "opp_elo": 5.366273987642813,
    "opp_sp": 85.1245585073752
   },
   "resid_se": 3120.3404723333183,
   "df_resid": 19,
   "n": 23,
   "means": {
    "opp_ranked": 0.391304347826087,
    "opp_elo": 1477.7391304347825,
    "opp_sp": -0.08695652173913059
   },
   "range": {
    "opp_ranked": [
     0.0,
     1.0
    ],
    "opp_elo": [
     618.0,
     2017.0
    ],
    "opp_sp": [
     -46.6,
     24.1
    ]
   },
   "swing": {
    "opp_ranked": 8048.113852169942,
    "opp_elo": -14980.527469708368,
    "opp_sp": 13116.850245120952
   },
   "baseline": 52103.086956519095,
   "labels": {
    "opp_ranked": "Opponent ranked in the AP Top 25",
    "opp_elo": "Opponent Elo rating",
    "opp_sp": "Opponent SP+ rating"
   },
   "help": {
    "opp_ranked": "1 when the opponent was in that week's AP Top 25, otherwise 0.",
    "opp_elo": "CollegeFootballData's Elo rating for the opponent entering the game. Before an opponent has played, last season's final Elo stands in.",
    "opp_sp": "Bill Connelly's SP+ rating for the opponent that season. Positive is better than average."
   },
   "mean_labels": {
    "opp_ranked": "39% of games ranked",
    "opp_elo": "1,478",
    "opp_sp": "-0.1"
   }
  },
  "tier2": {
   "features": [
    "rel_log_price"
   ],
   "intercept": 53104.940191814225,
   "coef": {
    "rel_log_price": 6431.566398197039
   },
   "stderr": {
    "const": 513.2715927120952,
    "rel_log_price": 737.9483451749137
   },
   "resid_se": 2177.3733088322156,
   "df_resid": 16,
   "n": 18,
   "means": {
    "rel_log_price": -0.010615380596355115
   },
   "range": {
    "rel_log_price": [
     -1.408767216971949,
     1.4284619119143125
    ]
   },
   "swing": {
    "rel_log_price": 18247.827529330734
   },
   "baseline": 53036.666666666635,
   "labels": {
    "rel_log_price": "Get-in price, relative to the season"
   },
   "help": {
    "rel_log_price": "The cheapest resale ticket on ticketdata.com, compared with that season's median price on a log scale. All listed home games contribute to the reference. A doubling relative to that reference has the same effect in any season."
   },
   "mean_labels": {
    "rel_log_price": "0.99\u00d7 the season reference"
   }
  }
 },
 "metrics": {
  "Season mean (all rows)": {
   "rmse": 4698.368116430657,
   "mae": 3601.9367588932805,
   "r2": 0.006569220499742179,
   "n": 23
  },
  "Tier 1 (all rows)": {
   "rmse": 3270.040455371912,
   "mae": 2724.496882395783,
   "r2": 0.5187732268320331,
   "n": 23
  },
  "Season mean (priced rows)": {
   "rmse": 5369.055616996284,
   "mae": 4571.143790849674,
   "r2": -0.1901627123765839,
   "n": 18
  },
  "Price only (priced rows)": {
   "rmse": 3651.9769708733884,
   "mae": 3063.1135854361605,
   "r2": 0.44936147307129815,
   "n": 18
  },
  "Relative price only (priced rows)": {
   "rmse": 2199.996845759504,
   "mae": 1566.9054755027257,
   "r2": 0.8001727781385992,
   "n": 18
  },
  "Tier 1 (priced rows)": {
   "rmse": 3697.8854467840483,
   "mae": 3259.518040444193,
   "r2": 0.4354304625911366,
   "n": 18
  },
  "Tier 2 (priced rows)": {
   "rmse": 2199.996845759504,
   "mae": 1566.9054755027257,
   "r2": 0.8001727781385992,
   "n": 18
  }
 },
 "tier1_candidates": [
  {
   "features": [
    "opp_ranked",
    "opp_elo",
    "opp_sp"
   ],
   "rmse": 3270.040455371912
  },
  {
   "features": [
    "opp_ranked"
   ],
   "rmse": 3529.306599021463
  },
  {
   "features": [
    "opp_sp"
   ],
   "rmse": 4193.495525218266
  },
  {
   "features": [
    "conf_game"
   ],
   "rmse": 4212.619397522097
  },
  {
   "features": [
    "opp_p4"
   ],
   "rmse": 4262.023826472993
  }
 ],
 "tier2_candidates": [
  {
   "features": [
    "rel_log_price"
   ],
   "price_feature": "rel_log_price",
   "rmse": 2199.996845759504
  },
  {
   "features": [
    "log_getin"
   ],
   "price_feature": "log_getin",
   "rmse": 3651.9769708733884
  },
  {
   "features": [
    "opp_ranked",
    "opp_elo",
    "opp_sp",
    "rel_log_price"
   ],
   "price_feature": "rel_log_price",
   "rmse": 2637.1273804869015
  },
  {
   "features": [
    "opp_ranked",
    "opp_elo",
    "opp_sp",
    "log_getin"
   ],
   "price_feature": "log_getin",
   "rmse": 3356.9361651025984
  }
 ],
 "counts": {
  "games": 29,
  "with_attendance": 23,
  "with_price": 18
 },
 "caveats": [
  "Small sample: a couple of dozen games across three historical seasons. These are retrospective tests, not forecasts recorded before kickoff.",
  "The target is announced attendance, not ticket scans or ticket sales. Predictions are capped at 60,417; nominal 80% coverage is conditional on model assumptions and has not been established for weeks-ahead forecasts.",
  "Historical prices were collected from the past-events table; their observation dates are unknown. Current prices may be weeks before kickoff, and price age matters.",
  "The season reference uses all available prices, including upcoming games. Historical final-price references were not necessarily available on the forecast date. A common percentage change in every price leaves relative-price predictions unchanged.",
  "The Tier 2 specification is fixed to relative log-price alone. Alternatives are diagnostics and do not automatically change production. It was chosen after examining this small dataset, so its retrospective scores may still be optimistic.",
  "Tier 1 features are selected using the same leave-one-out scores reported. Its opponent ratings are collinear and cached SP+ values are season-level, not verified pregame snapshots.",
  "Live Tier 2 forecasts require at least 3 priced games. Sparse historical seasons are retained in training and shown separately in diagnostics rather than dropping difficult outcomes; their season references are less reliable.",
  "Sellout odds are an uncalibrated model probability of reaching 60,417 announced attendees, not a verified probability that ticket inventory sells out."
 ],
 "warnings": [
  "2023 SE Louisiana: no Elo; imputed 862.0",
  "2023 SE Louisiana: no SP+; imputed -36.3",
  "2024 Eastern Kentucky: no Elo; imputed 660.0",
  "2024 Eastern Kentucky: no SP+; imputed -43.0",
  "2025 Alcorn State: no Elo; imputed 618.0",
  "2025 Alcorn State: no SP+; imputed -46.6",
  "2026 Tennessee Tech: no Elo; imputed 829.0",
  "2026 Tennessee Tech: no SP+; imputed -42.9",
  "2023 Southern Miss: missing attendance filled with 53,855 from https://hailstate.com/news/2023/11/18/football-postgame-notes-mississippi-state-vs-southern-miss",
  "2026 UL Monroe: missing attendance filled with 48,771 from https://hailstate.com/sports/football/stats/2026/ulm/boxscore/27455",
  "season 2024: only 2 priced games; sparse historical rows remain in training and diagnostics; new forecasts use Tier 1 until 3 prices are available"
 ],
 "validation": {
  "season_holdout": {
   "folds": [
    {
     "season": 2023,
     "training_n": 10,
     "rmse": 2183.9784785128404,
     "mae": 1622.8309162412716,
     "r2": 0.7933496823037822,
     "n": 8,
     "bias": -1597.7978678279123
    },
    {
     "season": 2024,
     "training_n": 16,
     "rmse": 4716.172114532282,
     "mae": 4645.638067694326,
     "r2": -15.7745704371269,
     "n": 2,
     "bias": 4645.638067694326
    },
    {
     "season": 2025,
     "training_n": 11,
     "rmse": 1351.6496060823915,
     "mae": 932.1891236745485,
     "r2": 0.9294407689747242,
     "n": 7,
     "bias": -739.2147158789313
    },
    {
     "season": 2026,
     "training_n": 17,
     "rmse": 1424.7721876030482,
     "mae": 1424.7721876030482,
     "r2": NaN,
     "n": 1,
     "bias": 1424.7721876030482
    }
   ],
   "metrics": {
    "rmse": 2326.9117250907652,
    "mae": 1679.1121954802063,
    "r2": 0.7764522257351294,
    "n": 18
   }
  },
  "forward": {
   "folds": [
    {
     "season": 2024,
     "training_n": 8,
     "rmse": 5024.194796728884,
     "mae": 4955.538294992904,
     "r2": -18.037286867213805,
     "n": 2,
     "bias": 4955.538294992904
    },
    {
     "season": 2025,
     "training_n": 10,
     "rmse": 1295.9848222199423,
     "mae": 895.2250813053761,
     "r2": 0.9351327591475536,
     "n": 7,
     "bias": -621.7277071404772
    },
    {
     "season": 2026,
     "training_n": 17,
     "rmse": 1424.7721876030482,
     "mae": 1424.7721876030482,
     "r2": NaN,
     "n": 1,
     "bias": 1424.7721876030482
    }
   ],
   "metrics": {
    "rmse": 2535.1938607036254,
    "mae": 1760.2424346726489,
    "r2": 0.7109639530549232,
    "n": 10
   }
  }
 },
 "per_season": [
  {
   "season": 2023,
   "priced_games": 8,
   "rmse": 1937.6697022454575,
   "mae": 1344.625,
   "r2": 0.837333221561849,
   "n": 8,
   "bias": -1146.125,
   "inside": 7
  },
  {
   "season": 2024,
   "priced_games": 2,
   "rmse": 4457.743375296519,
   "mae": 4374.0,
   "r2": -13.986569840656026,
   "n": 2,
   "bias": 4374.0,
   "inside": 0
  },
  {
   "season": 2025,
   "priced_games": 7,
   "rmse": 1479.021249726608,
   "mae": 1039.2857142857142,
   "r2": 0.9155160088878791,
   "n": 7,
   "bias": -595.0,
   "inside": 7
  },
  {
   "season": 2026,
   "priced_games": 7,
   "rmse": 1425.0,
   "mae": 1425.0,
   "r2": NaN,
   "n": 1,
   "bias": 1425.0,
   "inside": 1
  }
 ]
}