2026 outlook / Week 1
vs
UL Monroe
Sat, Sep 5, 2026. 6:30 p.m. CT. Davis Wade Stadium.
50,749
recorded pregame forecast
48,771
announced attendance
- 80% range
- 47,658 to 53,840
- Miss
- +1,978 Inside
- Get-in price
- $30 on Sat, Sep 5
- Model
- Price model
This forecast was archived before kickoff on 2026-09-05. Its model, inputs, price and interval are preserved exactly as they appeared then.
Why 50,749
Start from an average game in the training set, 53,288. Each variable then moves the number by its weight times how far this game sits from that average.
- Get-in price, relative to the season$30, 68% of the season median -2,539
Adds up to 50,749. Price model, 80% range 47,658 to 53,840.
The inputs
| Variable | This game | Training average | Weight | Seats moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Get-in price, relative to the seasonThe cheapest resale ticket on ticketdata.com, compared with that season's median price on a log scale. All listed home games contribute to the reference. A doubling relative to that reference has the same effect in any season. | $30, 68% of the season median | 1.02× the season reference | 6,356 | -2,539 |
Weight is the change in forecast attendance for a one-unit change in the variable. Seats moved is that weight times this game's distance from the training average. How the weights were fitted.
Data notes
- Missing attendance filled with 48,771 from https://hailstate.com/sports/football/stats/2026/ulm/boxscore/27455.