Davis Wade Forecast

2026 outlook / 2024 season / Week 8

vs

Texas A&M No. 14

Sat, Oct 19, 2024. 3:15 p.m. CT. Davis Wade Stadium.

53,641 retrospective forecast, attendance held out
50,127 announced attendance
80% range
50,786 to 56,495
Miss
+3,514 Outside
Get-in price
$10
Model
Price model

Why 53,641

Start from an average game in the training set, 53,208. Each variable then moves the number by its weight times how far this game sits from that average.

  • Get-in price, relative to the season$10, 1.1× the season median +433

Adds up to 53,641. Price model, 80% range 50,786 to 56,495.

The inputs

VariableThis gameTraining averageWeightSeats moved
Get-in price, relative to the seasonThe cheapest resale ticket on ticketdata.com, compared with that season's median price on a log scale. All listed home games contribute to the reference. A doubling relative to that reference has the same effect in any season. $10, 1.1× the season median 0.99× the season reference 6,457 +433

Weight is the change in forecast attendance for a one-unit change in the variable. Seats moved is that weight times this game's distance from the training average. How the weights were fitted.

Data notes