2026 outlook / Week 5
vs
Alabama No. 7
Sat, Oct 3, 2026. 11 a.m. CT. Davis Wade Stadium.
- 80% range
- 55,820 to 60,417
- Miss
- -1,473 Inside
- Forecast get-in price
- $119 on Thu, Sep 24
- Latest recorded price
- $128, collected Tue, Oct 13
- Model
- Price model
This forecast was archived before kickoff on 2026-10-03. Its model, inputs, price and interval are preserved exactly as they appeared then.
Sellout context
Mississippi State's official box score reports 60,417 announced attendees. A field observation supplied on October 13 describes Alabama supporters contributing to the crowd, helped by proximity and the matchup.
The price model combines demand into one resale-price signal; it does not separately estimate home support and visiting support.
Fan composition is qualitative observer context, not a measured attendance split or a numerical adjustment. The pregame forecast above stays as originally recorded.
Why 58,944
Start from an average game in the training set, 52,970. Each variable then moves the number by its weight times how far this game sits from that average.
- Get-in price, relative to the season$119, 2.5× the season median +5,974
Adds up to 58,944. Price model, 80% range 55,820 to 60,417.
The inputs
| Variable | This game | Training average | Weight | Seats moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Get-in price, relative to the seasonThe cheapest resale ticket on ticketdata.com, compared with that season's median price on a log scale. All listed home games contribute to the reference. A doubling relative to that reference has the same effect in any season. | $119, 2.5× the season median | 0.98× the season reference | 6,432 | +5,974 |
Weight is the change in forecast attendance for a one-unit change in the variable. Seats moved is that weight times this game's distance from the training average. How the weights were fitted.
Data notes
- Missing attendance filled with 60,417 from https://hailstate.com/sports/football/stats/2026/alabama/boxscore/27571.