Davis Wade Forecast

2026 outlook / 2025 season / Week 14

vs

Ole Miss No. 6

Fri, Nov 28, 2025. 11 a.m. CT. Davis Wade Stadium.

59,993 retrospective forecast, attendance held out
60,417 announced attendance, a sellout
80% range
56,640 to 60,417
Miss
-424 Inside
Get-in price
$133
Model
Price model

Why 59,993

Start from an average game in the training set, 52,603. Each variable then moves the number by its weight times how far this game sits from that average.

  • Get-in price, relative to the season$133, 3× the season median +7,390

Adds up to 59,993. Price model, 80% range 56,640 to 60,417.

The inputs

VariableThis gameTraining averageWeightSeats moved
Get-in price, relative to the seasonThe cheapest resale ticket on ticketdata.com, compared with that season's median price on a log scale. All listed home games contribute to the reference. A doubling relative to that reference has the same effect in any season. $133, 3× the season median 0.93× the season reference 6,378 +7,390

Weight is the change in forecast attendance for a one-unit change in the variable. Seats moved is that weight times this game's distance from the training average. How the weights were fitted.