2026 outlook / 2023 season / Week 2
vs
Arizona
Sat, Sep 9, 2023. 6:30 p.m. CT. Davis Wade Stadium.
52,169
retrospective forecast, attendance held out
51,648
announced attendance
- 80% range
- 48,136 to 56,201
- Miss
- +521 Inside
- Get-in price
- $12
- Model
- Price model
Why 52,169
Start from an average game in the training set, 53,887. Each variable then moves the number by its weight times how far this game sits from that average.
- Get-in price, relative to the season$12, 79% of the season median -1,718
Adds up to 52,169. Price model, 80% range 48,136 to 56,201.
The inputs
| Variable | This game | Training average | Weight | Seats moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Get-in price, relative to the seasonThe cheapest resale ticket on ticketdata.com, compared with that season's median price on a log scale. All listed home games contribute to the reference. A doubling relative to that reference has the same effect in any season. | $12, 79% of the season median | 1.04× the season reference | 6,305 | -1,718 |
Weight is the change in forecast attendance for a one-unit change in the variable. Seats moved is that weight times this game's distance from the training average. How the weights were fitted.