2026 outlook / 2024 season / Week 13
vs
Missouri
Sat, Nov 23, 2024. 3:15 p.m. CT. Davis Wade Stadium.
53,058
retrospective forecast, attendance held out
47,824
announced attendance
- 80% range
- 50,539 to 55,577
- Miss
- +5,234 Outside
- Get-in price
- $9
- Model
- Price model
Why 53,058
Start from an average game in the training set, 53,343. Each variable then moves the number by its weight times how far this game sits from that average.
- Get-in price, relative to the season$9, 95% of the season median -285
Adds up to 53,058. Price model, 80% range 50,539 to 55,577.
The inputs
| Variable | This game | Training average | Weight | Seats moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Get-in price, relative to the seasonThe cheapest resale ticket on ticketdata.com, compared with that season's median price on a log scale. All listed home games contribute to the reference. A doubling relative to that reference has the same effect in any season. | $9, 95% of the season median | 0.99× the season reference | 6,406 | -285 |
Weight is the change in forecast attendance for a one-unit change in the variable. Seats moved is that weight times this game's distance from the training average. How the weights were fitted.
Data notes
- Only 2 prices are recorded for this season. Its price reference is less reliable; historical results remain visible in the evaluation.