2026 outlook / 2023 season / Week 5
vs
Alabama No. 12
Sat, Sep 30, 2023. 8 p.m. CT. Davis Wade Stadium.
56,513
retrospective forecast, attendance held out
60,111
announced attendance
- 80% range
- 52,612 to 60,414
- Miss
- -3,598 Inside
- Get-in price
- $25
- Model
- Price model
Why 56,513
Start from an average game in the training set, 53,441. Each variable then moves the number by its weight times how far this game sits from that average.
- Get-in price, relative to the season$25, 1.7× the season median +3,072
Adds up to 56,513. Price model, 80% range 52,612 to 60,414.
The inputs
| Variable | This game | Training average | Weight | Seats moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Get-in price, relative to the seasonThe cheapest resale ticket on ticketdata.com, compared with that season's median price on a log scale. All listed home games contribute to the reference. A doubling relative to that reference has the same effect in any season. | $25, 1.7× the season median | 1.00× the season reference | 6,143 | +3,072 |
Weight is the change in forecast attendance for a one-unit change in the variable. Seats moved is that weight times this game's distance from the training average. How the weights were fitted.