2026 outlook / 2025 season / Week 2
vs
Arizona State No. 12
Sat, Sep 6, 2025. 6:30 p.m. CT. Davis Wade Stadium.
51,480
retrospective forecast, attendance held out
50,808
announced attendance
- 80% range
- 47,434 to 55,525
- Miss
- +672 Inside
- Get-in price
- $32
- Model
- Price model
Why 51,480
Start from an average game in the training set, 53,931. Each variable then moves the number by its weight times how far this game sits from that average.
- Get-in price, relative to the season$32, 71% of the season median -2,451
Adds up to 51,480. Price model, 80% range 47,434 to 55,525.
The inputs
| Variable | This game | Training average | Weight | Seats moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Get-in price, relative to the seasonThe cheapest resale ticket on ticketdata.com, compared with that season's median price on a log scale. All listed home games contribute to the reference. A doubling relative to that reference has the same effect in any season. | $32, 71% of the season median | 1.05× the season reference | 6,293 | -2,451 |
Weight is the change in forecast attendance for a one-unit change in the variable. Seats moved is that weight times this game's distance from the training average. How the weights were fitted.