2026 outlook / Week 4
vs
Missouri No. 19
Sat, Sep 26, 2026. 6:45 p.m. CT. Davis Wade Stadium.
- 80% range
- 50,115 to 56,095
- Miss
- -7,312 Outside
- Forecast get-in price
- $48 on Thu, Sep 24
- Latest recorded price
- $39, collected Tue, Oct 13
- Model
- Price model
This forecast was archived before kickoff on 2026-09-24. Its model, inputs, price and interval are preserved exactly as they appeared then.
Sellout context
Mississippi State's official game book reports 60,417 announced attendees. A field observation supplied on October 13 describes a crowd driven mainly by Mississippi State supporters, with few visiting Missouri fans.
That observation suggests strong home support can fill the stadium even when the cheapest resale ticket is modest. The price model does not directly measure home-team momentum, primary ticket sales or fan campaigns. This result remains a forecast miss in the track record.
Fan composition is qualitative observer context, not a measured attendance split or a numerical adjustment. The pregame forecast above stays as originally recorded.
Why 53,105
Start from an average game in the training set, 53,037. Each variable then moves the number by its weight times how far this game sits from that average.
- Get-in price, relative to the season$48, at the season median +68
Adds up to 53,105. Price model, 80% range 50,115 to 56,095.
The inputs
| Variable | This game | Training average | Weight | Seats moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Get-in price, relative to the seasonThe cheapest resale ticket on ticketdata.com, compared with that season's median price on a log scale. All listed home games contribute to the reference. A doubling relative to that reference has the same effect in any season. | $48, at the season median | 0.99× the season reference | 6,432 | +68 |
Weight is the change in forecast attendance for a one-unit change in the variable. Seats moved is that weight times this game's distance from the training average. How the weights were fitted.
Data notes
- Missing attendance filled with 60,417 from https://static.hailstate.com/custompages/stats/fb/2026/ms0926.PDF.