2026 outlook / 2024 season / Week 3
vs
Toledo
Sat, Sep 14, 2024. 6:30 p.m. CT. Davis Wade Stadium.
47,837
retrospective forecast, attendance held out
47,412
announced attendance
- 80% range
- 43,250 to 52,423
- Miss
- +425 Inside
- Get-in price
- none listed
- Model
- Schedule-only model
Why 47,837
Start from an average game in the training set, 52,991. Each variable then moves the number by its weight times how far this game sits from that average.
- Opponent ranked in the AP Top 25Unranked -4,025
- Opponent Elo rating1,524 -243
- Opponent SP+ rating-2.5 -886
Adds up to 47,837. Schedule-only model, 80% range 43,250 to 52,423.
The inputs
| Variable | This game | Training average | Weight | Seats moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent ranked in the AP Top 251 when the opponent was in that week's AP Top 25, otherwise 0. | Unranked | 46% of games ranked | 8,783 | -4,025 |
| Opponent Elo ratingCollegeFootballData's Elo rating for the opponent entering the game. Before an opponent has played, last season's final Elo stands in. | 1,524 | 1,503 | -11.85 | -243 |
| Opponent SP+ ratingBill Connelly's SP+ rating for the opponent that season. Positive is better than average. | -2.5 | +1.8 | 207 | -886 |
Weight is the change in forecast attendance for a one-unit change in the variable. Seats moved is that weight times this game's distance from the training average. How the weights were fitted.