2026 outlook / 2024 season / Week 1
vs
Eastern Kentucky
Sat, Aug 31, 2024. 5 p.m. CT. Davis Wade Stadium.
50,056
retrospective forecast, attendance held out
48,724
announced attendance
- 80% range
- 45,125 to 54,987
- Miss
- +1,332 Inside
- Get-in price
- none listed
- Model
- Schedule-only model
Why 50,056
Start from an average game in the training set, 52,937. Each variable then moves the number by its weight times how far this game sits from that average.
- Opponent ranked in the AP Top 25Unranked -4,144
- Opponent Elo rating660 +11,041
- Opponent SP+ rating-43.0 -9,778
Adds up to 50,056. Schedule-only model, 80% range 45,125 to 54,987.
The inputs
| Variable | This game | Training average | Weight | Seats moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent ranked in the AP Top 251 when the opponent was in that week's AP Top 25, otherwise 0. | Unranked | 46% of games ranked | 9,041 | -4,144 |
| Opponent Elo ratingCollegeFootballData's Elo rating for the opponent entering the game. Before an opponent has played, last season's final Elo stands in. | 660 | 1,539 | -12.55 | +11,041 |
| Opponent SP+ ratingBill Connelly's SP+ rating for the opponent that season. Positive is better than average. | -43.0 | +3.5 | 210 | -9,778 |
Weight is the change in forecast attendance for a one-unit change in the variable. Seats moved is that weight times this game's distance from the training average. How the weights were fitted.
Data notes
- No Elo; imputed 660.0.
- No SP+; imputed -43.0.